According to the April report from the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE), Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by approximately 3% in 2025. After the war concludes in 2026-2027, the pace of economic growth may accelerate. A critically important factor for maintaining macroeconomic stability this year will be the G7 countries’ decision to provide Ukraine with $50 billion through the ERA mechanism.
This is reported by Finway
During the period from 2025 to 2027, Ukraine is expected to receive about $92 billion in external financing, of which over $58 billion will be received this year. With this support, the country will be able not only to cover its budget deficit but also to increase its foreign exchange reserves. The projected volume of external loans in 2025-2027 will exceed $72 billion, allowing for the financing of a significant portion of the state budget deficit.
Return of Investors and Improved Financing
Additionally, the return of foreign investors to the domestic government debt market is anticipated over the next two years, along with the possibility of Ukraine issuing eurobonds as early as 2027 or even sooner. It is expected that the state budget deficit will decrease from 16% of GDP in 2025 to 10.2% in 2026 and to 6.4% in 2027. At the same time, budget expenditures are expected to decrease by approximately 15% after the war due to a gradual reduction in defense and security spending.
The Need for Investment for Sustainable Growth
To enhance productivity and ensure stable economic growth, Ukraine needs to attract $300 billion in investments over the next 10 years.