Economists from the Institute for Economic Research and the German Economic Team have revised their expectations for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2025, lowering the forecast to 2%. According to their estimates, the pace of economic development may accelerate to 2.8% in 2026. It is worth noting that in February, analysts predicted a GDP growth of 2.9% for Ukraine in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026.
This is reported by Finway
Main Reasons for the Forecast Revision
The downward revision of forecasts is linked to weaker-than-expected results in key sectors such as the agro-industrial complex, transportation, and industry. At the same time, experts expect that by the second half of 2025, the economy may begin to recover more quickly due to the activation of industry and trade. A significant factor limiting economic growth remains the ongoing full-scale war.
The main drivers of economic growth from the demand side continue to be private consumption, investments in defense, and reconstruction. However, there is currently no large-scale recovery in the country.
Expectations Regarding Inflation and Financing
From the supply side, the highest growth is expected in the trade sector. Meanwhile, businesses continue to face serious challenges such as labor shortages and logistics issues. Inflation is projected to be 13.2% in 2025 and 6.7% in 2026.
International financial support fully covers Ukraine’s financing needs for 2025. However, for 2026, the planned volume of external assistance is currently $10-15 billion less than the necessary minimum.