According to estimates from the National Bank of Ukraine, in the first half of 2025, the country’s economic growth will be supported by fiscal stimuli made possible by international financial assistance. However, growth rates will remain limited due to the intensification of attacks from the Russian Federation, which has led to the destruction of production capacities, infrastructure, and housing. This, in turn, has contributed to an increase in internal migration and created tension in the labor market.
This is reported by Finway
Impact of Weather Conditions and the Situation in Agriculture
Adverse weather has delayed the start of the harvest and negatively affected crop yield prospects. Along with the gradual decrease in last year’s product stocks, this has become a factor hindering the development of the food industry and the transport sector. Such circumstances complicate the stable functioning of key sectors of the economy.
GDP Forecast for 2025–2027
According to the baseline scenario of the NBU forecast, economic recovery in 2025 will be slower than in the previous year: Ukraine’s real GDP is expected to grow by 2.1% (compared to 2.9% in 2024). Economists at the National Bank expect a gradual return to normal working conditions and a recovery in economic growth at a rate of 2–3% in 2026–2027.
“In the event of a rapid normalization of conditions, private investments and consumption will significantly increase and compensate for the effects of rapid fiscal consolidation, and GDP growth rates could reach 3–3.5%”.
Thus, the growth rate of the Ukrainian economy in 2025 will be modest; however, under favorable conditions, there are prerequisites for a more dynamic recovery in the following years.