As part of the ERA mechanism, Ukraine plans to divide external funding from G7 countries into three parts, financed by frozen Russian assets. The first part will be used for budget financing this year, the second for advance financing of next year’s deficit, and the third part is intended to create a conditional financial buffer in case of a negative scenario.
This is reported by Finway
Last year, $1 billion was received under the ERA mechanism. This year, $39.4 billion is expected, $2.4 billion next year, and $1.3 billion in the first quarter of 2027. Regarding the formation of the financial buffer for the negative scenario, $9.1 billion from this year’s ERA receipts and $1 billion from next year’s receipts will be allocated for its provision.
If we consider the baseline scenario, which anticipates the end of the war by the end of 2025, external funding to cover the deficit in 2025 will amount to $39.8 billion, $20 billion in 2026, and $3.1 billion in the first quarter of 2027. However, in the case of a negative scenario where the war continues until mid-2026, the need for external funding this year to cover the deficit will rise to $48.8 billion, $21 billion next year, and $7.1 billion in the first quarter of 2027.