In Ukraine, there is a trend of monthly price increases for bread, and by the end of 2025, this staple product may become 11–23% more expensive depending on the type. This forecast was presented by Svetlana Cheremisina, Doctor of Economic Sciences and Chief Researcher at the Institute of Agricultural Economics.
This is reported by Finway
Price Forecast for Different Types of Bread
According to the expert, throughout 2025, the price increase for bread is expected to be at a rate of 1–1.7% per month. If these rates continue, the following prices are anticipated by the end of the year:
- wheat bread made from premium flour — approximately 63.5 UAH per kilogram (an increase of 22.3%);
- wheat bread made from first-grade flour — 49.6 UAH/kg (+16.7%);
- rye bread — 50.6 UAH/kg (+12.1%);
- loaf (0.5 kg) — 30.9 UAH (+11.2%).
Reasons for Price Increases and Market Impact
As Cheremisina noted, the volume of domestic grain consumption in Ukraine is not the main factor influencing bread pricing. Only 20–25% of the harvested grain is used in the domestic market, while the rest is exported.
“Grain prices do not have as critical an impact as other costs,” she explained.
In September, the average purchase price of wheat was 7901 UAH per ton, which is only 12% higher than the figure at the beginning of 2022. At the same time, rye prices increased by 72% — reaching 9277 UAH per ton.
Since the beginning of 2025, there has also been an increase in the cost of key components for bread production: wheat flour has risen by 4.3% to 12.81 UAH per kilogram, rye flour by 55.2% (13.68 UAH/kg), and sunflower oil by 11.4% (81.02 UAH/kg). Meanwhile, sugar has decreased in price by 1.4% and costs 32.68 UAH/kg.
Among the key factors affecting the cost of bread, the expert highlighted the increase in fuel prices, energy carriers, and labor costs. Since the beginning of the year, gasoline has increased by 6.7% (57.66 UAH/l), and diesel by 6.9% (55.84 UAH/l).
A separate role, according to Cheremisina, is played by the increase in salaries in the bakery industry. Since enterprises have the status of being critically important for the economy, the official salary level for workers must be no less than 20,000 UAH per month, which also affects the cost of the final product.