In 2025, the price of Bitcoin could significantly increase and exceed the $122,000 mark if three main factors align: the growth of the money supply, robust development of spot ETFs, and a resurgence of interest from retail investors.
This is reported by Finway
Money Supply and Spot Bitcoin ETFs: New Market Drivers
Analysts believe that the global increase in liquidity is already supporting the trend of strengthening the first cryptocurrency. The M2 money supply in the 21 largest central banks in the world reached a record $55.5 trillion in July. Additionally, the U.S. federal budget deficit, which totaled $1.3 trillion over nine months, also plays a role.
Another powerful catalyst is the rapid development of the spot Bitcoin ETF market in the U.S. According to recent data, Bitcoin ETF assets have already reached $150 billion, approaching the $198 billion in gold instrument assets. From the beginning of 2024 to June 2025, Bitcoin ETFs attracted $45 billion, while gold funds attracted $34 billion. This signals a growing distrust in fiat currencies and a shift of investors towards digital assets, which are increasingly perceived as “digital gold.”
Experts emphasize: “When Bitcoin ETFs surpass gold in asset volume, it will help solidify its status as a reserve asset rather than a risky instrument.”
Return of Retail Investors and Political Changes
The third factor is the revival of interest from retail investors. Despite Bitcoin rising by 116% year-over-year in 2024, user activity on platforms like Coinbase and Robinhood has yet to return to the peak levels of November 2024. However, this trend could change in 2025, particularly due to political decisions. Notably, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order allowing cryptocurrencies and other alternative assets to be included in 401(k) retirement plans. According to 0G Labs CEO Michael Heinrich, this move could “unlock trillions of retirement capital for Bitcoin.”
If all three factors—expansion of the money supply, the preference for Bitcoin ETFs over gold funds, and the increase in retail investments—materialize, Bitcoin could not only exceed $122,000 but also set a new historical high in 2025.
As of the time of preparing this material, the price of Bitcoin is around $118,150, although it had already surpassed $123,000 in July and set a record. However, there was a subsequent temporary decline, sparking discussions about future growth prospects.
Daily chart of BTC/USDT on the Binance exchange. Source: TradingView.
In the long term, analysts predict that Bitcoin could surpass the $200,000 mark by 2026 if trends continue.