Analysts at the investment company Tephra Digital have released a new medium-term forecast for the Bitcoin exchange rate, suggesting that the price of the leading cryptocurrency could rise to $167,000–$185,000 by the end of 2025 or in the first half of 2026. The basis for this forecast is the stable correlation between Bitcoin’s dynamics, the price of gold, and the global money supply M2.
This is reported by Finway
Impact of M2 and Gold on Bitcoin Dynamics
According to Tephra Digital’s analysis, if the correlation between Bitcoin, gold, and the M2 money supply remains intact, the market can expect significant price growth for the crypto asset. The company’s experts highlight two key charts: the first shows the relationship between Bitcoin and M2 with a lag of 102 days, while the second illustrates the connection between Bitcoin and gold with a lag of 200 days. In both cases, this year’s trend indicates the possibility of reaching the $167,000 mark and even $185,000.
“If the delayed correlations of M2 and gold with Bitcoin hold, the rest of the year could be very interesting. The charts below indicate $167k-185k”.
According to the first chart, Bitcoin could reach $167,000 in just 102 days at an annual growth rate (CAGR) of 330%. The second chart predicts a price increase to $185,000 in 200 days at a CAGR of 154%. Meanwhile, the increase in liquidity, reflected in the growth of the M2 money supply, is typically directed towards risk assets like cryptocurrencies, further stimulating their growth.
As analysts note, there is a direct and strong correlation between Bitcoin and the M2 money supply. According to the Bitcoin CounterFlow portal, this indicator has exceeded 80% in recent years. Additionally, a decrease in the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate is expected to contribute to further growth in M2, which, in turn, will positively impact Bitcoin’s exchange rate. According to CME’s forecast, the probability of a monetary policy easing in September is 99.7%.
Positive Correlation with Gold and Long-Term Prospects
The correlation between Bitcoin and gold also remains positive. Prior to the cryptocurrency market correction at the end of August 2025, it was in the range of 0.1–0.25 and had not fallen below a positive value since July. If this trend continues for at least another 200 days, and gold prices keep rising, Bitcoin’s exchange rate will also have the potential for significant increases.
Additionally, in July 2025, WisdomTree reported that Bitcoin’s share in the “hard assets” pool reached 8%. The growth of this share indicates an increasing dependence of the cryptocurrency on macroeconomic factors, particularly M2 and gold metrics. In the same report, WisdomTree forecasts that under conditions of rising inflation and monetary policy, the price of Bitcoin could reach $250,000, while gold could hit $4,000 per ounce.
However, not all experts share these optimistic expectations. Some analysts warn of a high risk of a potential market correction in September, which investors should consider in their strategies.