Ukraine has a real chance to get through the summer period without power outages if optimistic forecasts from experts are adhered to. Analysts from DiXi Group believe that the most likely scenario is the “optimistic” one, where there are no massive attacks from Russia on the energy infrastructure and moderate summer temperatures prevail.
This is reported by Finway
Optimistic Scenario: What Experts Predict
In the optimistic scenario, the risk of outages is only 5%, and the likelihood of consumption restrictions remains minimal. It is anticipated that with moderate weather and no new massive attacks, the peak electricity consumption will not exceed 16 GW. In this case, the existing capacities of nuclear, thermal, hydroelectric power plants, and renewable sources will fully meet the country’s needs. Elena Lapenko, General Manager for Security and Resilience at DiXi Group, notes that as of mid-May, the capacities of Ukrainian nuclear power plants stand at 7.7 GW, thermal generation can provide 4.7 GW, hydroelectric plants — 3.9 GW, and renewable sources — 7.1 GW. This indicates significant preparedness of the energy system for peak summer loads compared to last year.
“The best scenario we see as most likely is the optimistic one. It assumes moderate weather and the absence of massive attacks. In this case, the peak consumption will not exceed 16 GW, and the existing capacities of nuclear, thermal, hydroelectric, and renewable energy sources will be sufficient to cover demand,” the company explains.
At the same time, experts point out that the use of hydro resources is limited due to the absence of spring floods, and repairs at thermal and nuclear power plants during the summer may temporarily reduce available capacity by 1.3–1.4 GW. Additionally, consumption is increasing due to air conditioning, and balancing the energy system is complicated by surpluses during the day and deficits in the morning and evening.
Alternative Scenarios: Average and Pessimistic
The average scenario allows for the absence of attacks on the energy sector but significant heat. Under such conditions, during peak load hours, there could be a deficit of electricity up to 2.8 GW, and total consumption may rise to 18 GW. This could lead to restrictions, but it is not specified whether these would affect only industry or also the population. In this case, the electricity deficit could reach 10–15% due to reduced imports and equipment repairs.
The pessimistic scenario assumes moderate temperatures but Russian attacks on the energy system. In this case, consumption will remain at 16 GW; however, thermal generation will significantly decrease, and the deficit during peak load hours could reach 2.2 GW. With further attacks and a deficit of hydro resources, an energy deficit of 16–20% is possible.
Experts also note that this year, the situation with gas is being assessed. After massive attacks on gas infrastructure and minimal gas reserves last winter, the task for the summer is to accumulate a sufficient volume of resources for the next heating season. The optimal level of reserves is no less than 14–15 billion cubic meters by November 1, but the accumulation rates are currently significantly lower than in previous years. Since the beginning of the year, 2 billion cubic meters of gas have already been imported.
The optimistic gas scenario involves injecting up to 32 million cubic meters per day starting in June and restoring production to the level of 2024, which will allow for the accumulation of 15 billion cubic meters by November. The average scenario predicts up to 24 million cubic meters per day, with production being 10% lower. In a pessimistic development of events, where attacks continue and demand for generation increases, reserves may amount to only 10.29 billion cubic meters, creating high risks of gas shortages in winter.