The rise in oil prices has brought new profits to Russian business elites, but their willingness to invest these funds in financing the war has significantly decreased. According to military expert and reserve officer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Andriy Kramarov, there is currently an increase in pressure on the authorities from big business in Russia, demanding a review of the country’s further course regarding the war.
This is reported by Finway
Business Position and Impact of the Situation on the Front
According to the expert, Russian business circles are receiving significant income from oil sales, but now they seek to preserve these profits rather than direct them towards military campaign needs. This unexpected turn, in Kramarov’s opinion, is a logical reaction to the rise in oil prices. It was expected that low prices would create difficulties for business; however, now that incomes have increased, it is the business elites who have begun to oppose prolonged financing of the war.
“The business elite of Russia has just started to pressure the authorities regarding the cessation of the war, as after the rise in oil prices they have begun to receive significant profits again, and they do not want to spend these profits on the war right now. It’s an interesting situation. Everyone thought that a bigger problem for them might be very low prices, but it turned out to be absolutely the opposite — oil prices have risen, and their elites have started to pressure the authorities,” Kramarov noted.
The expert also emphasizes that the Russian leadership is faced with a serious dilemma: the situation on the front is deteriorating, and the prospects for further offensive actions look uncertain. The first stage of the 2026 offensive campaign has already failed, and oil exports to Europe are complicated by strikes from Ukrainian drones and missiles on oil transshipment infrastructure.
Impact of the Oil Market and Prospects for Negotiations
Kramarov believes that further events on the front and changes in oil prices will determine whether there will be a real chance for peace negotiations. If Russian troops cannot advance in the summer and the line of demarcation remains stable, the war will take on the character of positional warfare, which could serve as a basis for initiating negotiations.
At the same time, the dynamics of oil export and production remain important for the Russian economy. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its forecast for Russian oil supplies by 120,000 barrels per day by the end of the year due to attacks on oil refineries and port infrastructure. In March, production in the Russian Federation rose to 8.96 million barrels per day, compared to 8.67 million in February. OPEC estimates oil production in March at 9.167 million barrels per day, indicating the stability of the industry despite external circumstances.