Currently, no formation of a strike group of Russian troops has been recorded in Belarus that could launch a new offensive on Ukrainian territory. At the same time, according to the spokesperson of the State Border Guard Service, Andriy Demchenko, Russia continues to strengthen its influence over the military infrastructure of the neighboring state. Ukrainian intelligence is closely monitoring these processes, as the threat level in the Belarusian direction remains elevated.
This is reported by Finway
“Russia has started to exert more pressure on Belarus to engage more extensively and with its own forces in the war against Ukraine. This means that provocations towards our border may also occur in the future. An invasion cannot be ruled out,” Demchenko emphasized.
Potential Threat Directions from Belarus
During a media briefing, Andriy Demchenko highlighted that the danger exists not only near Kyiv and Chernihiv, as it was at the beginning of the full-scale invasion in 2022. Currently, potential targets for the enemy also include Volyn and Rivne regions, where the enemy may attempt to disrupt the logistics of western regions of Ukraine. According to the spokesperson of the State Border Guard Service, Russia can at any moment deploy strike units to Belarus and use the military infrastructure facilities created there for aggression.
Ukraine’s Response and the Position of the Belarusian Authorities
In May, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized intelligence data regarding a possible attack from the Belarusian direction. The head of state visited border regions and noted that a breakthrough is possible not only in the north but also in Volyn, Rivne, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, and Chernihiv regions. Zelensky assured that in the event of a threat, Ukraine is ready to take preventive action.
For his part, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, during a briefing dedicated to joint exercises with Russia, assured that his country does not plan to attack but is ready to respond in the event of “invasion by other parties.” According to him, in such a case, Belarusian troops will receive support from the armed forces of Russia. It was also reported about the placement of Russian nuclear warheads in Belarusian storage facilities and the training of crews for the Iskander missile systems, which can use them.
Analysts conducted modeling (wargame) of a probable invasion scenario into Lithuania from the territory of Belarus to assess the actions of the Russian Armed Forces, possible timelines for encircling Vilnius, NATO’s reaction, and steps that could halt aggression within 10 days.