In January 2026, oil and gas revenues for the federal budget of the Russian Federation decreased by 50.2% compared to the same period last year, reaching their lowest level since July 2020. According to the Russian Ministry of Finance, revenues from oil and gas last month amounted to 393.3 billion rubles, which is 396 billion rubles less than in January 2025. Compared to December 2025, revenues from energy exports fell by 12.2%, or 54.5 billion rubles.
This is reported by Finway
Main Reasons for the Revenue Decline
The decline in the Russian government’s revenues is linked to falling global prices for Russian oil and the strengthening of the ruble. The budget for 2026 was based on oil and gas revenues of 8.92 trillion rubles, assuming a price of $59 per barrel for Urals oil and an exchange rate of 92.2 rubles per dollar, which significantly exceeds current figures.
In December 2025, the price of one barrel of oil in rubles, on which taxes for January are calculated, was 3073 rubles, while the budget anticipated 5440 rubles per barrel. For the year 2025, Russia’s oil and gas revenues decreased by 24% year-on-year, reaching 8.48 trillion rubles — the lowest since 2020.
Earlier, Deputy Minister of Finance of Russia Vladimir Kolychev stated that oil and gas revenues for the Russian budget in 2026 could be “much lower” than planned.
According to Kolychev, the losses from the reduction in resource rents are expected to be compensated by the National Wealth Fund (NWF). However, analysts estimate that the NWF may not have enough funds even this year: as of January 1, the fund had 4.1 trillion rubles in liquid assets.
NWF Expenditures and Budget Deficit
Since the beginning of the full-scale war against Ukraine, gold reserves in the NWF have decreased by 71%, from 554 tons to 160 tons. The fund’s foreign currency reserves are exclusively in Chinese yuan, amounting to about $30 billion, which is the lowest level since the NWF was established in 2008.
To cover the revenue deficit, the Russian Ministry of Finance will need to withdraw about 3 trillion rubles from the NWF, and another 700 billion rubles will go towards investment expenditures. As a result, only 400 billion rubles will remain in the fund, which will be sufficient to finance government expenditures for only 3-4 days.
The federal budget deficit of Russia for 2025 amounted to a record 5.65 trillion rubles ($72.77 billion), the highest figure for the country since 2006.
Decline in Urals Oil Prices
In December, according to the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, the average price of a barrel of Urals oil fell to a five-year low of $39. In January 2026, Russian companies were forced to offer discounts of up to 50% to sell oil in the markets of India and China. According to Bloomberg, Urals prices have dropped to $35-37 per barrel, while the budget anticipated $59.