According to forecasts by analysts surveyed by the Central Bank of Russia, the total deficit of the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation in 2025-2027 will reach 5.1% of the country’s gross domestic product. The total deficit for this three-year period will amount to approximately ₽12.1 trillion, equivalent to $145 billion at the current exchange rate.
This is reported by Finway
Declining Revenues and Rising Debt
In 2025, the budget deficit of Russia is expected to be at 2.4% of GDP, or ₽5.3 trillion. This is a record figure since the coronavirus pandemic, when the deficit reached 4.6% of GDP. In the following years, a gradual reduction in the deficit is anticipated: in 2026 it will decrease to 1.6% of GDP (₽3.9 trillion), and in 2027 to 1.1% of GDP (₽2.9 trillion).
The main reasons for the increase in the deficit are falling oil prices, the strengthening of the ruble, and a decrease in oil and gas revenues. Over the first eight months of 2025, oil and gas revenues to the budget have decreased by 20%, with a 35% drop in August compared to the same period last year. At the same time, the budgets of Russia’s regions are also under pressure due to the economic slowdown and difficulties in the business sector.
“The ‘hole’ in the Russian budget in 2025 will reach 2.4% of GDP or ₽5.3 trillion – a record figure since the coronavirus pandemic (when the deficit was 4.6% of GDP).
Ministry of Finance’s Response and Business Adaptation
Finance Minister Anton Siluanov stated that in 2025, the Ministry of Finance of Russia will be forced to borrow more funds than previously planned. Instead of the planned ₽4.8 trillion, borrowing volumes will increase. Siluanov emphasized that the increase in debt will occur “within reasonable limits”.
Amid economic instability, 57% of companies in Russia are already preparing for further decline, which is forecasted to continue until the end of 2025. Almost all enterprises (90%) over the past year have been forced to seek new partners, suppliers, and contractors. Half of the companies (51%) have reduced staff as part of financial optimization. At the same time, 73% of firms still face a labor shortage, and 67% have been unable to enter new sales markets over the past three years.