The Russian economy stands on the brink of a prolonged recession, a fact acknowledged even by analysts close to the Kremlin. According to the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service, confidence is growing within Russian economic circles regarding the inevitability of an economic downturn that will last at least until mid-2026.
This is reported by Finway
Key Factors of the Recession
Experts from the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, operating within the orbit of the Russian government, predict that under current economic trends, avoiding a recession is impossible. Key reasons for this development include a strict monetary policy and high Central Bank rates, which, even after gradual reductions, are unable to address the deep structural problems of the economy.
“The likelihood of a recession is increasing, indicating deeper structural issues: a decline in business confidence, a slowdown in economic activity, and weakening domestic demand.”
Indicators and Expectations for 2026
Economic activity indicators sharply deteriorated in October. The indicator for exiting the recession dropped from 0.345 to 0.1, significantly below the threshold mark of 0.35. This indicates high risks of a prolonged economic downturn that could extend for over a year. Experts note that even a gradual strengthening of the ruble negatively impacts the country’s trade balance, while the slowdown of the global economy only deepens existing problems.
Russian analysts have reached a consensus: under the conditions of maintaining a strict monetary policy, the Russian economy is doomed to further decline, and signals of worsening conditions are only intensifying with each passing month.