In the summer of 2026, prolonged power outages are expected in Ukraine. The reasons for this may include not only scheduled repairs of nuclear power plant units but also a significant increase in air temperature. However, the duration and scale of outages will depend on a number of factors.
This is reported by Finway
Impact of Heat and Repairs on the Energy System
According to the head of the “League of Energy Development of Ukraine,” Oleksandr Holizdra, during the summer period, the country’s base electricity consumption is 11–13 GW. In hot weather, this figure can rise to 14–16 GW. If the temperature does not exceed 22-24°C, air conditioners are mostly not used, which allows for maintaining a normal level of consumption.
At the same time, when the temperature rises to 25–30°C, there is mass use of air conditioners in residential, industrial, and commercial premises. This leads to an increase in load on the energy system by 300–500 MW for each degree above 25°C. At temperatures of 30°C and above, the additional load increases by 500–800 MW per degree.
“When the temperature rises to 25–30°C, mass cooling of premises begins — not only in the household sector but also in industrial enterprises and businesses. Consumption in the energy system increases by 300–500 MW for each degree. At temperatures of 30°C and above, the load increases by 500–800 MW for each additional degree. Under such conditions, daytime peaks occur that were not recorded before. Moreover, scheduled repairs of nuclear power plant units take place in the summer,” explained Holizdra.
In parallel, scheduled repairs of power units at nuclear power plants occur during the summer. If only one unit is under repair, power outages will remain minimal. However, if two or more units are under repair simultaneously, the power deficit will increase, leading to more significant outages.
Stabilization Factors and Additional Risks
Holizdra emphasizes that the energy system can be somewhat stabilized through maximum electricity imports. This will be possible due to the increase in price caps in the market, which was approved by the National Commission for State Regulation of Energy and Public Utilities (NERC) at the end of April.
Another important factor is the operation of cogeneration plants. In winter, their efficiency reaches 85% when they simultaneously produce heat and electricity. In summer, however, when heating is not needed, their efficiency drops to 45%, negatively affecting the overall generation balance.
Additionally, the situation may be influenced by Russia’s attacks on generation facilities, as well as the electricity transmission and distribution system. Repairs of power units this year began earlier — in February and March — which may partially mitigate the power deficit in the summer.
The expert acknowledges that due to the combination of all these factors, it is currently difficult to predict the exact level of outages; however, avoiding them in the summer will not be possible.
According to preliminary estimates, during periods when the air temperature exceeds +30°C, power outages may last up to 6–8 hours a day. The director of the Energy Research Center, Oleksandr Kharchenko, previously noted that the situation with electricity supply is complicated due to extensive damage to the energy system, especially in Kyiv, Odesa, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv regions. Interruptions may last for several more years.