In September 2025, the annual inflation rate in Ukraine decreased to 11.9%, significantly lower than 13.2% in August and 15.9% in May. This result was primarily due to a drop in food prices, driven by a high harvest of vegetables and fruits. According to experts, the inflation level at the end of September was lower than the National Bank’s July forecast of 13.1%.
This is reported by Finway
Disinflation Trends and Their Causes
The slowdown in price growth was observed for most components of the consumer basket, except for education, hotels, and food establishments. The main factors influencing inflation dynamics were weak growth in household incomes, particularly due to moderate increases in social payments and salaries in the public sector, as well as the stability of administratively regulated tariffs for gas and electricity for the population.
Forecast for the NBU’s Discount Rate
Analysts do not identify significant risks that could halt the disinflation trend and note that this year’s harvest provides a sufficient supply of food products in the market. As a result, experts expect further slowing of inflation and forecast it at 8.5% by the end of 2025.
“We expect the trend of slowing inflation to continue and foresee it at 8.5% by the end of 2025. This allows the NBU to begin a cycle of gradual monetary policy easing as early as October this year – we anticipate a reduction in the discount rate next week by 50 basis points,” experts predicted.
Thus, as early as October, the National Bank of Ukraine may decide to lower the discount rate by 0.5 percentage points, marking the beginning of a new phase of monetary policy easing.