Concerns are growing in European capitals regarding potential Russian actions against NATO countries over the next two years. This is attributed to political uncertainty in the United States and the fact that European states have not yet completed their processes of strengthening their own defense capabilities. Experts and officials believe that the Kremlin may try to take advantage of this ‘window of opportunity’ to test the unity of the Alliance, although a full-scale attack on NATO countries is currently not the most likely scenario.
This is reported by Finway
Possible Russian strategies and NATO’s response
According to representatives of defense ministries and lawmakers, the next one to two years, while Donald Trump is still in office as President of the United States and the EU has not completed strengthening its own defense, could be a favorable period for the Kremlin. Despite the fact that the war in Ukraine has revealed limitations in Russian military power, Vladimir Putin has repeatedly demonstrated a desire to expand territorial control.
“Something could happen very soon — Russia has a window of opportunity. The U.S. is withdrawing from Europe, transatlantic relations are in ruins, and the EU is not yet fully prepared to take responsibility on its own,” said Mika Aaltola, a Finnish center-right member of the European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee.
Officials do not rule out Putin’s attempts to launch a ground offensive against NATO countries, but consider such an option unlikely due to the involvement of Russian troops in the protracted war in Ukraine. Instead, the Kremlin may resort to targeted operations or incursions that create ambiguity and division within the Alliance regarding the application of Article 5 on collective defense. Article 5 states that an attack on one NATO member is considered an attack on all, but Trump has previously referred to the Alliance as a “paper tiger.”
Gabrielius Landsbergis, former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania, also warns of the possibility of horizontal escalation by Russia against other neighbors to avoid concessions to Ukraine during negotiations.
Targets for pressure and the response of European countries
Despite a significant increase in European defense spending following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the real effect will only be felt in a few years. According to the EU’s Defense Readiness Roadmap, full capability for deterrence and countering aggression is expected by 2030. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk emphasized that “the greatest threat to the transatlantic community” could be the prolonged weakening of the Alliance.
If Trump changes his rhetoric regarding NATO in light of domestic political events in the U.S. or the results of upcoming elections, Western positions on supporting Ukraine and European security may waver. Recently, the U.S. announced the withdrawal of 5,000 troops from Germany, and Trump has threatened similar actions regarding Italy and Spain.
Mika Aaltola notes that Russia has a number of potential targets for attacks, but the Kremlin is unlikely to risk an attack on countries with strong defenses, such as the Polish border. More likely, there will be asymmetric actions — operations using drones, incidents in the Baltic Sea or the Arctic, or attacks on small islands involving the already militarized so-called “shadow fleet.”
The goal of possible operations is to exert pressure on European partners of Ukraine while avoiding direct responses from the U.S. At the same time, there is no unity in Europe regarding the assessment of the level of immediate threat. Some countries, such as Finland and Lithuania, are calling for urgent strengthening of missile defense in light of delays in Western military assistance, while others, including Estonia and NATO leadership, maintain a more restrained position, believing that panic only plays into Putin’s hands.
Meanwhile, underestimating the danger carries the risk of creating a false sense of security in Europe. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently suggested that Russia may be preparing an offensive against one of the Baltic countries, although politicians in the region are trying to downplay concerns, and NATO remains skeptical about such developments.
Estonian President Alar Karis expressed the opinion that Russia is too engaged in the war in Ukraine to start another large-scale conflict in the Baltics. Additionally, it was recently revealed that American military personnel likely accidentally disclosed confidential information regarding NATO’s nuclear infrastructure in Europe — specifically mentioning air bases in the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Italy, and Turkey.