Bitcoin market indicators signal a prolonged decline in miner activity and a likely onset of a bear market, according to the latest data from CryptoQuant analysts.
This is reported by Finway
Decline of the Puell Multiple Indicator and Pressure on Miners
According to monitoring results, the Puell Multiple indicator has remained in the discount zone for over three months — since November 2025. Traditionally, such a situation is considered favorable for long-term accumulation of Bitcoin; however, it is currently accompanied by increasing bearish pressure on the market. On average, this indicator stays in this area for about 200 days, so experts estimate that the current cycle is approximately at the midpoint of this period. This may indicate further declines in Bitcoin’s price.
Miners are currently facing financial pressure due to falling revenues and asset value. This leads smaller players to shut down their equipment, effectively capitulating to cover costs. If the price decline trend continues, the pressure to sell reserves will only intensify. It is known that the total reserves of miners currently amount to approximately 1.8 million BTC and have been decreasing for four consecutive years.
Increase in Bitcoin’s Share at a Loss and Early Signals of a Bear Market
An additional indicator of market weakness has been the dynamics of the share of Bitcoin supply at a loss (Supply in Loss, %). This metric began to rise again at the end of January 2026, which historically indicated the start of a bear phase. In previous cycles, particularly in 2014, 2018, and 2022, this indicator turned upward even before reaching a price bottom, with the largest losses recorded after short-term holders transferred their losses to long-term investors.
“Historically, such a change marked the initial phase of bear cycles, when losses extend beyond short-term holders and gradually affect long-term participants.”
The value of this indicator currently remains below historical capitulation levels; however, experts believe that the direction of changes indicates a transition of the market into a bear trend structure — meaning this is not a local correction, but a longer phase of decline.
The situation is further impacted by weather conditions in the U.S.: extreme cold has led to mass shutdowns of mining installations. Over 35% of Bitcoin’s hash rate was temporarily taken offline, and according to StandardHash CEO Leano Liu, about 1.3 million miners were shut down.
Despite this, Bernstein experts predict that the current phase is short-term and that a trend reversal may occur in the first half of 2026. According to their estimates, Bitcoin could form a bottom near the $60,000 mark, corresponding to the historical highs of the previous cycle.