The strengthening of the ruble is considered unlikely by experts due to geopolitical instability and a weak external economic balance. This information was presented by the press service of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine on its Facebook page.
This is reported by Finway
Economic Challenges for Russia
The SVR noted that under conditions of high inflation, the continuation of the current Kremlin policy will lead to a decrease in the real incomes of citizens. Additionally, an increase in social tension in the country is expected.
“Further strengthening of the ruble is extremely unlikely due to the unstable nature of the external economic balance and geopolitical uncertainty,” emphasized the press service.
The Kremlin maintains a high interest rate, forcing the population to “tighten their belts.” In an attempt to calm the public, “Rosstat” officially reported an inflation rate of 10.3%. However, the real consumer price index for essential goods has already reached 17%, which exceeds the official data by 1.7 times and raises doubts about the accuracy of the official statistics.
Monetary Policy and Its Consequences
According to the SVR, on April 25, the Central Bank of Russia decided to keep the interest rate at 21%. This indicates an intention to continue pursuing a tight monetary policy. It has been noted that such actions suppress investment activity, slow down economic growth, and increase financial pressure on businesses.
“Due to high prices, even despite the so-called ‘reduction in inflationary pressure,’ the regulator is forced to maintain strict conditions to bring inflation back to the target of 4% by 2026,” the institution reported.
The Central Bank forecasts an average interest rate for 2025 in the range of 19.5–21.5%.