Analysts from one of the largest American banks, JPMorgan, have stated that there is a growing oversupply in the global oil market, which could lead to a sharp decline in Brent oil prices in the coming years. According to their estimates, due to this imbalance, the price of Brent oil could fall below $40 per barrel by the end of 2027.
This is reported by Finway
Forecasts for oil oversupply and price changes
Experts predict that in 2026, the oversupply of oil in the market could reach 2.8 million barrels per day, and in 2027, it may slightly decrease to 2.7 million barrels. Such volumes of surplus are capable of exerting significant pressure on Brent quotations. According to analysts’ estimates, in 2027, the average price of Brent could drop to $42 per barrel, and by the end of the year, it could fall to around $30, provided that no measures are taken to limit supply. This would create a risk of unprofitability for extraction in certain oil and gas fields in the U.S.
“However, such a scale of imbalances is unlikely to be fully realized in practice, which is why JPMorgan maintains its baseline forecast for Brent prices at $58 per barrel for 2026 and expects $57 in 2027, based on the assumption that producers will voluntarily cut production to stabilize the market.”
Increase in global oil inventories
According to the latest data from the International Energy Agency, global oil inventories increased by 77.7 million barrels in September, reaching the highest level since July 2021. Since the beginning of 2025, the total increase in inventories has already amounted to about 313 million barrels, further exacerbating the imbalance in the market.