The National Bank of Ukraine has updated its macroeconomic forecast, noting an increase in inflationary pressure and a decrease in economic growth prospects. After a prolonged period of price slowdown that lasted since mid-2025, the situation has changed: prices have begun to rise again faster than expected.
This is reported by Finway
“Price dynamics are once again exceeding the projected trajectory. In March, inflation in Ukraine accelerated to 7.9%, while core inflation reached 7.1%, surpassing the regulator’s expectations. In April, according to NBU estimates, price growth did not stop, maintaining a high dynamic.”
Key Factors of Inflation Growth
The National Bank identifies several key factors that have contributed to the acceleration of inflation in Ukraine. Among them:
- energy shocks caused by infrastructure destruction;
- rising fuel prices in global markets;
- exchange rate fluctuations of the hryvnia in previous periods;
- rapid wage growth that outpaces labor productivity growth.
These factors have created persistent pressure on the cost of goods and services, which has reflected on the overall price level.
Updated Forecast: Inflation and GDP Dynamics
According to the updated scenario, the National Bank predicts that in the second half of 2026, inflation may reach 9.4%. In 2027, a gradual slowdown in price growth is expected, and the country may only return to the target level of 5% by 2028.
At the same time, the regulator emphasizes that the main driver of prices remains the increase in production costs, especially in the energy sector. This leads to the so-called “chain reaction effect,” where price increases in one sector affect other sectors of the economy. The recovery of the economy is currently happening more slowly than the increase in price pressure on businesses and the population.
Additionally, the World Bank has recently also adjusted its forecast for Ukraine. According to updated data, GDP growth for the country in 2026 is projected to be only 1.2%, while in 2025 it is expected to be 1.8%, and in 2024 – 3.2%.