Analysts predict that the inflation rate in Ukraine will continue to decline in 2026. According to experts, the monthly slowdown in annual inflation will last at least until June, and by March or April, the figure may drop below 6%.
This is reported by Finway
Factors Influencing Inflation
Economists note that several key factors will contribute to the low inflation rate. In particular, these include the slowdown in household incomes, the stability of utility tariffs, a sufficient harvest from last year, and restrictions on food exports due to the destruction of port infrastructure. Furthermore, the limited weakening of the hryvnia will continue to restrain inflationary pressure in the coming months.
Expectations Regarding the Discount Rate and Monetary Policy
Despite the current slowdown, analysts forecast that in the second half of the year, annual inflation will gradually accelerate due to the low base from the previous year. Experts predict that by the end of 2026, inflation will be around 6.3%.
“We expect it to be 6.3% by the end of this year,” say the specialists.
Given the sharp decline in inflation, the National Bank of Ukraine is likely to be forced to begin a cycle of easing monetary policy. In particular, it is expected that by the end of January 2026, the discount rate will be reduced by 50 basis points to 15%. Throughout the year, a further reduction of the rate by a total of 200 basis points, to 13.5%, is anticipated.