The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has presented an updated baseline forecast, indicating a possible end to the war in Ukraine in the last months of 2025. At the same time, the fund emphasizes that “risks remain exceptionally high” due to ongoing hostilities.
This is reported by Finway
According to IMF data, the negative impact on Ukraine’s economic growth this year is attributed to recent attacks by occupiers on gas infrastructure and the closure of an important coal mine near Pokrovsk. However, despite these challenges, the prospects for agricultural exports remain positive. International reserves are expected to reach $56.8 billion by the end of the year, linked to accelerated funding under the ERA program.
Progress in Negotiations and Economic Risks
The IMF memorandum states that achieving progress in negotiations to end the war could positively affect the economic situation in Ukraine. However, experts note that the negotiations are in the early stages, raising concerns about changes in financial and security support from international partners.
Prospects for Military Actions
At the same time, as the spring period of active hostilities approaches, analysts and military command warn of a possible large-scale offensive by Russia throughout 2025. This could occur along a 1000-kilometer front line. An interesting observation was made in a piece by The Telegraph, which notes that the situation at the front may indicate the possibility of a ceasefire by Easter. A former officer of the British special forces SAS emphasized the activity of Ukrainian troops in the border area of Russia’s Belgorod region, stating that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are willing to take risks by using Western armored vehicles.