The International Monetary Fund expects that the war in Ukraine will last at least until the end of 2026, and therefore it is not revising its forecasts for an improvement in the economic situation in the country. This was stated by the head of the IMF’s European Department, Alfred Kammer.
This is reported by Finway
Gradual Economic Recovery Despite the War
Despite the IMF’s pessimistic expectations, the head of the National Bank of Ukraine, Andriy Pyshny, does not believe that the country’s economy is in a state of stagnation. According to him, there is a gradual economic recovery: in the first half of 2025, GDP growth is recorded at 0.8%, and by the end of the year, an increase of 2% is expected according to the July forecast of the NBU. He emphasized the stability of the banking system and a 30% annual growth in business lending, which is an important indicator of trust in the country’s financial system.
“The banking system is liquid, profitable, and well-capitalized, with business lending increasing by 30% per year. Investments in hryvnia bonds and the active recovery of investment lending indicate confidence in the economy. The population has invested nearly ₴60 billion in hryvnia bonds – this is 360% more than before the full-scale war,” he noted.
Challenges for Business and NBU’s Strategic Goals
Pyshny also emphasized that one of the key tasks of the National Bank remains the development of the capital market, which will allow attracting investments, primarily private ones, and ensure the transition from survival to sustainable economic growth. He added that reforms in the country continue even under the challenging conditions of full-scale war, and inflation and the situation in the currency market remain under control.
At the same time, despite the stable operation of most Ukrainian enterprises, businesses express concern about the future. The main issues remain the shortage of personnel and rising prices, which are currently affecting businesses even more than shelling. In September, the business activity recovery index fell from 0.08 in August to 0.05, indicating a weakening of confidence among entrepreneurs.