Ukraine is experiencing a growing fuel shortage, which may soon lead to a significant increase in gasoline and diesel prices. This assessment was made by fuel expert and founder of the Prime group of companies, Dmytro Lyoshkin.
This is reported by Finway
Causes of the Shortage and Potential Price Increase
According to the expert’s forecast, by the end of November, diesel fuel at Ukrainian gas stations may rise by 2–3 hryvnias per liter, while gasoline may increase by 1–2 hryvnias. The main factors behind this increase are the fuel shortage in Europe following the implementation of the 19th package of sanctions against Russia, as well as Ukraine’s restrictions on the import of fuel of Russian origin.
“Forecasting is a thankless task, but I see an increase of 2 or even 3 hryvnias for diesel and 1-2 hryvnias for gasoline. Even with the ‘wild’ margin, traders will not stop the increase.”
Lyoshkin emphasized that there is currently a severe shortage of diesel fuel in Ukraine, and it is practically impossible to quickly compensate for this deficit under the current conditions. Restrictions on fuel imports, particularly from the Romanian port of Constanța, complicate the situation, although there have been no official reports of such restrictions. Meanwhile, according to industry sources, diesel imports from Romania significantly decreased in October.
Impact of Excise Taxes and Seasonality on the Market
The expert also pointed out that an increase in excise taxes on gasoline and diesel is planned for January 1, which will further lead to an increase in fuel prices. Given the low season, demand for fuel is decreasing, but even this does not stop the trend of rising prices. Lyoshkin predicts that in just a few months, the price of diesel could reach 65 hryvnias per liter, while gasoline could exceed 70 hryvnias.
At the same time, according to the expert, if Ukraine lifts the restrictions on fuel imports from Constanța, the market situation will stabilize, at least until the excise tax increase. This would help avoid further price increases and reduce the speculative markup on diesel fuel, which currently stands at about 1.5 hryvnias per liter.