A study conducted by the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) indicates that the baseline scenario for the average birth rate anticipates a gradual increase in the coefficients from 1 to 1.5 children per woman. However, these figures still remain below the replacement level. According to UN estimates, if necessary measures are not taken by the state, Ukraine’s population could decrease to 32 million by 2050.
This is reported by Finway
Changes in the Age Structure of the Population
Along with the gradual decline in population, there will be a change in the ratio of age groups. From 2070, the number of elderly individuals (aged 60 and over) will exceed the number of working-age people (aged 18-59) – 11.1 million compared to 10.9 million, respectively. This indicates a critical level of national aging, which creates significant pressure on healthcare, social support, and pension systems.
The Impact of Emigration on Population Numbers
It is known that between 2021 and 2024, Ukraine’s population decreased from 44.3 to 37.9 million. This decline occurred primarily due to significant emigration and a negative ratio between birth and death rates. In April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its population forecast for Ukraine to 33.9 million by 2030.