In Ukraine, a gradual decrease in deposit rates is expected in the second half of 2025. According to experts’ forecasts, the average yield on hryvnia deposits may drop to the level of 11-12% per annum, while maximum rates will remain around 13.5%.
This is reported by Finway
Factors Influencing Deposit Rates
Changes in the deposit market are driven by the stabilization of the economy, a decrease in inflation, and a potential adjustment of the National Bank of Ukraine’s discount rate. According to Dmitry Zamotaev, the director of the retail business department at Globus Bank, the NBU may potentially lower the discount rate from 15.5% to 14.5-15% as early as September 2025. This will provide grounds for a review of monetary instruments, particularly the rates on 3-month deposit certificates, which may decrease from 19% to 18.5-18%.
“Such changes will be an objective reason for banks to gradually begin the process of adjusting profitability on hryvnia deposits,” noted the banker.
In an optimistic scenario, assuming economic growth and further inflation reduction, by the end of 2025, average rates on hryvnia deposits may decrease by 1.5-2 percentage points to 11-12% per annum. At the same time, a new stage of competition among banks for clients is expected, which may lead to the introduction of additional bonus percentages of 0.5-1 percentage points. Thus, maximum offers may reach 13.5%.
Demand for Deposits and Foreign Currency Deposits
According to Zamotaev, deposits with terms of 6-9 months and 1 year will be in the highest demand – these will be the ones for which banks offer the highest rates. Overall, in the second half of 2025, the number of new hryvnia deposits may increase by 2-3% compared to the first half of the year. Compared to 2024, the number of depositors may increase by 5-6%.
As for foreign currency deposits, their share in Ukrainian banks does not exceed 15%. Experts do not predict significant changes in demand for this instrument. According to Zamotaev, foreign currency deposits are mainly of interest to citizens who diversify their risks by also keeping funds in government bonds, hryvnia deposits, or precious metals. Such deposits are often viewed not as a source of income but as a reliable way to preserve savings.
Rates on foreign currency deposits will remain low: by the end of 2025, the average yield on deposits in US dollars will not exceed 1% per annum, while for deposits in euros, it will be 0.8%.