The European Commission has revised its growth forecast for Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) for 2025, reducing it to 2% from the previous 2.8% announced in November. This decrease is linked to the ongoing war, which is putting significant pressure on production capacities and business sentiment in the country.
This is reported by Finway
Additionally, the forecast for 2026 has also been downgraded from 5.9% to 4.7%. It is expected that exports will decline due to a fall in industrial production, particularly in energy-intensive sectors that have been affected by rising energy prices. Special attention is drawn to the closure of “Pokrovskvuhillia,” which is a key supplier for the metallurgy industry.
The European Commission also forecasts a decrease in agricultural product exports due to reduced stocks resulting from poor harvests in 2024, caused by unfavorable weather conditions.
Despite this, high demand for energy resources, coal, and materials related to defense and reconstruction will sustain a high level of imports. This will lead to a negative contribution of net exports to GDP growth. Thus, in 2025, exports are expected to grow by only 1.8%, while in 2026, they will increase by 11.4%. Import growth during this period will be 5.5% and 6%, respectively.