According to the updated macroeconomic forecast from investment company Dragon Capital, Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2025 could accelerate to 3.5-5.5%. This is only possible if agreements are reached between Ukraine and Russia for a lasting ceasefire. Otherwise, if the war continues, economic growth is projected at 2.5%.
This is reported by Finway
The company has lowered its forecast by 0.5 percentage points in both the prolonged ceasefire scenario and under conditions of intensified hostilities. The forecast also indicates that annual inflation is likely to start decreasing in June-July, due to reduced fundamental pressure and a high comparison base in the food segment.
“We forecast a slowdown in consumer inflation to 8.1% year-on-year by the end of 2025 in the ‘ongoing war’ scenario and to 9-10% in the ‘ceasefire’ scenario,” the forecast states.
Regarding the exchange rate of the hryvnia, Dragon Capital experts expect that the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) will return to a controlled and gradual weakening of the hryvnia in the second half of the year. The NBU’s reserve forecast has been raised to $59 billion, and the forecast for the hryvnia exchange rate at the end of the year has been improved to ₴44 per $1, which is 4.4% lower compared to the previous year (the previous forecast was ₴45 per $1).