The official exchange rate of the hryvnia to the dollar in 2026, according to financial experts and bankers, will be determined by the balance of supply and demand in the currency market. The National Bank of Ukraine will continue its policy of curbing sharp fluctuations, maintaining the stability of the national currency.
This is reported by Finway
Experts’ Predictions on Currency Exchange Rates
The chief expert in macroeconomic analysis at Raiffeisen Bank, Serhiy Kolodiy, believes that 2026 will be somewhat similar to the previous year but will have its own characteristics. According to him, in 2025, the USD/UAH exchange rate remained relatively stable, although the beginning of the year was marked by the devaluation of the hryvnia. At the same time, the strengthening of the euro against the dollar shifted the NBU’s priorities, drawing attention to the EUR/UAH pair. This led to a slowdown, and sometimes even a reversal, in the devaluation dynamics of the hryvnia against the euro during certain periods.
In 2026, further gradual strengthening of the euro against the dollar is expected. Accordingly, the pace of the hryvnia’s devaluation against the euro will be higher, and inflationary processes in the second half of 2025 are showing positive dynamics. This, according to the expert, will allow the NBU to worry less about the impact of devaluation on inflation and not focus exclusively on stabilizing the USD/UAH.
“Under the baseline scenario, we expect a moderate (4−6%) annual devaluation of the hryvnia against the US dollar and somewhat higher against the euro. In the event of a positive scenario related to improved security risks, the euro may temporarily rise against other currencies. A deterioration in security risks in Ukraine would mean a worsening for the EU as well, so the euro is unlikely to rise against the dollar, and the pace of the hryvnia’s devaluation against both currencies will be around 10% per year,” predicts Serhiy Kolodiy.
Expectations of Banks and Financial Groups
The Vice President of the Association of Ukrainian Banks and Chairman of the Board of Globus Bank, Serhiy Mamedov, predicts that in 2026, the dollar will be priced between 43–45 hryvnias, while the euro will be 50–52 hryvnias. According to his assessment, the average increase in the official dollar exchange rate in 2026 compared to 2025 will be 2–7%. The banker emphasizes that the changes in the exchange rate will be gradual and controlled, without sharp jumps, which will help avoid panic in the cash market.
Analysts from the investment group ICU believe that in 2026, the NBU’s gold and foreign exchange reserves will remain at a high level thanks to support from the EU, creating a protective buffer against potential macroeconomic risks. According to their estimates, by the end of the year, the exchange rate of the hryvnia to the dollar will be approximately 44.3 UAH per dollar.
Experts from the KSE Institute, Dmytro Krukovets and Ksenia Oleksin, predict that the average annual exchange rate of the hryvnia to the dollar in 2026 will be around 43 UAH per dollar, and by the end of the year, it will be 44.5 UAH per dollar.
In addition to currency forecasts, experts predict a decrease in the discount rate to 14% in 2026 against the backdrop of slowing inflation to 7%. The nominal GDP is expected to be at the level of 230.5 billion dollars with a real growth of 2.6%.
The trade deficit will remain one of the key issues: the projected export of goods will amount to 44.2 billion dollars, while imports will be 86.6 billion dollars.