In 2026, most experts expect a gradual weakening of the hryvnia, but they predict that the dollar exchange rate will not exceed the psychological barrier of 45 hryvnias. This consensus has been formed among analysts based on the macroeconomic forecasts of the government and leading research institutions.
This is reported by Finway
Main Factors Influencing the Currency Market
As noted by the head of macroeconomic research at “PrivatBank,” Olga Poharska, during a discussion at the Economic Strategy Center, the hryvnia demonstrated significant fluctuations in 2025, both strengthening and weakening. At the same time, most analysts do not anticipate sharp changes in the exchange rate in 2026 – it is expected to remain at a level close to the beginning of 2025 by the end of the year.
“However, if we look at the interventions of the NBU, we can notice a clear trend towards increasing net interventions, although they are offset by significant external financial support, which has allowed the National Bank to accumulate quite substantial reserves,” Poharska noted.
External Support and Key Risks
According to the expert, the limited export potential of Ukraine and significant import needs are the main reasons for the moderate devaluation in forecasts for the next year. Analysts are factoring in an exchange rate change of around 5% on average. At the same time, the situation in the currency market largely depends on the regularity of international financial aid inflows, especially in the first half of 2026.
Olga Poharska emphasized that even with record gold and foreign exchange reserves and significant potential for currency interventions, the uncertainty regarding external financing at the beginning of the year could lead to increased volatility of the hryvnia. An additional risk to the stability of the exchange rate remains the intensity of hostilities in the country.