In the coming months, consumers may face further increases in retail coffee prices. This is due to the fact that the current rise in the cost of coffee beans has not yet fully reflected in the final prices on store shelves. Producers warn that the trend of rising prices will continue.
This is reported by Finway
Reasons for the Increase in Coffee Prices
According to Carlos Mera, head of agricultural commodity market research at Rabobank, the increase in coffee prices for the end consumer typically lags by many months or even up to a year after the rise in the cost of coffee beans. Mera predicts that prices will continue to rise in the coming months.
“Any increase in coffee prices on grocery store shelves generally lags by ‘many months’ or even a year,” notes Carlos Mera, head of agricultural commodity market research at Rabobank. He expects further price increases in the coming months.”
Italian producer Illycaffe SpA has also announced a price increase. The company’s CEO, Cristina Scocchia, stated that Illycaffe plans to adjust prices in all countries and across all sales channels due to the “unhealthy rise” in the cost of unroasted beans. She explains that high bean prices are more related to market speculation rather than actual supply disruptions. Illycaffe has already raised prices twice this year and is preparing for another increase in January.
Global Factors and Forecasts
Illycaffe experts estimate that prices for unroasted coffee beans will stabilize at around $2.80 to $3.00 per pound (0.45 kg) in the second half of 2026. This significantly exceeds the average over the past five years.
The cost of arabica reached a historic high last month due to a combination of two factors: the introduction of U.S. tariffs on Brazilian coffee and a poor harvest worldwide. Later, U.S. President Donald Trump expanded tariff exemptions for Brazilian coffee, leading to a slight decrease in prices, but they still remain very high compared to previous years.
Despite the rising costs, demand for coffee remains stable, and producers forecast further market growth in the future.