Market analysts believe that the actual volumes of gold purchases by China significantly exceed the officially announced figures, contributing to a record increase in the value of this precious metal. Experts estimate that China’s non-public gold purchases may be more than ten times greater than the official figures, as the country actively works to reduce its dependence on the US dollar.
This is reported by Finway
Doubt About Official Statistics and Import Scale
Officially, the People’s Bank of China declares a monthly purchase of only 1.9–2.2 tons of gold in 2025. However, analysts, including those from Société Générale, estimate that actual purchases could reach 250 tons per year, accounting for over a third of the total global demand for gold from central banks. Traders believe that the official data is significantly understated, and the opacity of operations complicates accurate forecasting of gold price movements.
Jeff Currie, the chief energy strategist at Carlyle, notes that China consistently buys gold as part of its dedollarization policy. Unlike oil supplies, which can be tracked via satellites, the movement of gold remains virtually invisible. Alternative sources of information for the market include data on orders for large 400-ounce bars from Switzerland or South Africa that eventually end up in China. Some experts believe that China’s true gold reserve may reach around 5,000 tons, which is double the official figures.
Growth of Global Reserves and Increasing Secrecy
In recent years, central banks in many countries have been increasing their gold reserves, pushing the price of the precious metal above $4,300 per ounce. The share of gold in global reserves outside the US has risen from 10% to 26%, making gold the second most important reserve asset after the US dollar.
At the same time, fewer gold purchase operations are being disclosed to the International Monetary Fund: in the last quarter, only a third of official purchases were made public, whereas four years ago this share was around 90%. Many countries, including China, report purchases minimally to avoid political risks or not to influence the market price in their favor.
As the world’s largest producer and consumer of gold, China has the capacity to increase its reserves through both imports and domestic production. Officially, the country has announced the purchase of only 25 tons of gold, but an analysis of import flows and the difference between domestic production and net imports indicates hundreds of tons per year. Additionally, Beijing encourages other countries to store their gold reserves in its own vaults: for instance, Cambodia has agreed to store new gold on the Shanghai Exchange with payment in yuan.
“Ultimately, it is unknown. Any attempts to estimate it… miss the fact that it is just part of a larger mystery that is the Chinese gold market,” says Adrian Ash, director of research at BullionVault.
Many analysts refrain from making precise estimates of the true scale of gold purchases by the People’s Bank of China, pointing to the extraordinary complexity of the market and the limited availability of transparent information.