In August, the Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI) rose to 49 points, up from 48.3 in July and 48.4 in August of last year. Despite this, the indicator has still not reached the neutral mark of 50 points, indicating a lingering sense of pessimism among entrepreneurs. However, there is a gradual improvement in outlook assessments across all key sectors.
This is reported by Finway
Main Factors Influencing Business Activity
Analysts note that the positive changes in the BAEI were made possible by strong consumer demand, stable operation of the energy system, slowing inflation, and seasonal factors. At the same time, significant negative impacts on business sentiment are caused by the destruction of production capacities and infrastructure, rising production costs, increased electricity tariffs for businesses, and a shortage of skilled labor.
The Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI) rose to 49 in August, compared to 48.3 in July and 48.4 in August last year. This is still below the neutral assessment level of 50 points, but reflects some improvement in outlook assessments across all sectors, noted the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
Dynamics in Economic Sectors
Among all sectors, the construction sector shows the most positive expectations: the index here increased to 54 points, compared to 50.6 in July. Construction companies forecast growth in production volumes, new orders, and purchases, as well as a relaxation of restrictions on contractor availability.
In industry, the indicator remains below the neutral level at 48.7, compared to 48.6 in the previous month. However, enterprises in this segment have improved their assessments of export orders, unfinished production volumes, and finished goods inventories.
Regarding price dynamics, companies in construction, trade, and services anticipate moderate increases in the cost of their products and services, while industrial enterprises expect a slight acceleration in price increases.
In the labor market, only the construction sector plans to increase the number of employees, while other sectors are inclined to reduce staff.