In July 2025, the Business Activity Recovery Index in Ukraine showed negative dynamics for the second consecutive month, dropping from 0.09 to 0.05. This data was released by the Institute of Economic Research.
This is reported by Finway
Main Positive Trends in the Business Environment
Despite the overall decline in the index, a number of positive changes were noted in the activities of Ukrainian enterprises. In particular, 63% of companies operated at full or nearly full capacity in July, significantly more compared to the same period last year, when this figure was only 45%.
The level of uncertainty has significantly decreased: the share of those unable to predict the state of business over a two-year horizon fell from 37.4% to 31.4%. Additionally, the proportion of enterprises planning to expand production has increased, indicating optimistic expectations regarding future business activity.
Another positive development is the slowdown in inflation expectations: the share of businesses forecasting an increase in raw material prices decreased from 42.8% to 38.9%, and some companies even expect a decrease in prices. Furthermore, issues with electricity supply have almost lost their relevance: only 6% of respondents consider them a significant obstacle to operations.
Main Challenges for Enterprises
At the same time, businesses are facing a number of serious problems. One of them is the reduction in the order portfolio: the average duration of new order portfolios has decreased to 4.5 months. Expectations regarding exports remain pessimistic: the share of those predicting an increase in external sales has decreased, while the share expecting a decline has increased.
The main challenges for enterprises continue to be security risks and labor shortages. The security threat has once again become a key issue for 57% of companies, matching the significance of the labor shortage.
The security threat has once again become the main challenge for 57% of enterprises, equaling the shortage of labor.
It is worth noting that finding qualified workers has become somewhat easier, while the search for unskilled personnel, on the contrary, has become more difficult, creating additional challenges for many companies.