Analysts at CryptoQuant have reported the third testing of the cost basis level for short-term Bitcoin holders — the so-called “whales” who hold the asset for a short period and are sensitive to market changes. According to them, the current price of Bitcoin fluctuates around $79,000–$80,000, which corresponds to the average realized price for these investors.
This is reported by Finway
Market Dynamics and Behavior of Short-Term “Whales”
Since October 2025, this is already the third similar situation. In the previous two cases, when Bitcoin approached this level, short-term holders could not withstand the pressure and began to sell, leading to a short-term capitulation of this category of investors. Currently, the unrealized profit or loss indicator for such market participants is gradually returning to the breakeven point after a prolonged period of significant losses.
Experts emphasize that short-term “whales” traditionally make decisions more emotionally than long-term strategy investors and are more dependent on current volatility, market impulses, and risk management.
Possible Scenarios for the Market
Analysts believe that if Bitcoin consolidates above the $79,000–$80,000 mark, selling pressure may significantly decrease. In this case, short-term holders may return to a passive holding model, which would contribute to market stabilization.
“If it consolidates above the $79,000-$80,000 level, selling pressure may ease, the experts noted.”
On the other hand, if the price fails to hold at this level again, a repeat of the capitulation of short-term market participants is possible, as observed at the end of October 2025 and in January 2026.
Analysts also emphasize that the current situation can be viewed as a kind of “regime decision” for the Bitcoin market — the behavior of short-term investors will determine the further price movement.
It is worth noting that a record low share of Bitcoin on exchanges has been recorded since 2018, which additionally affects the overall market dynamics.
