The State Border Guard Service of Ukraine stated that currently Belarus is not increasing the number of its military units directly at the border with Ukraine. However, activities in the deeper territories of the country raise concerns for the Ukrainian side.
This is reported by Finway
Situation at the Belarusian-Ukrainian Border
As reported by the spokesperson of the State Border Guard Service, Andriy Demchenko, since 2022, Belarus has maintained only a limited number of its military units near the border, which are periodically rotated. Their numbers remain stable, without significant growth. Despite this, certain processes within the country indicate an increasing influence of Russia on the Belarusian authorities.
“At the same time, what is happening deep within the country, as reported by intelligence, currently indicates that Russia has begun to exert more pressure on Belarus to engage more extensively and with its own forces in the war against Ukraine. This means that provocations towards our border may occur in the future. An invasion cannot be ruled out,” Demchenko stated.
Possible Scenarios and Statements from Leadership
The spokesperson of the State Border Guard Service also noted that Russia currently does not have strike groups on Belarusian territory, but if necessary, it can quickly redeploy its forces and utilize new infrastructure facilities being constructed by Belarus. In April, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, referring to intelligence data, noted that Russia has repeatedly attempted to involve Belarus in combat operations, and road construction towards Ukraine and the establishment of artillery positions are ongoing in border areas.
On May 19, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, stated that “possible operations in the north are real,” commenting on the potential threat from the Belarusian border. In response, Alexander Lukashenko emphasized that Minsk would not be drawn into the war, except in cases of aggression against Belarus itself.
Although Belarus is officially not participating in the war against Ukraine, in February 2022, it provided its territory for the passage and deployment of Russian troops, as well as for launching missile strikes on Ukrainian territory.