Arthur Hayes, co-founder of the BitMEX exchange and head of the Maelstrom fund, expressed skepticism regarding the popular theory among investors about the four-year Bitcoin cycle. In his view, the main factor influencing the dynamics of the first cryptocurrency is macro liquidity and the monetary policy of leading central banks around the world.
This is reported by Finway
Macroeconomic Drivers for Bitcoin Growth
In an interview with Kyle Chass, Arthur Hayes emphasized that today’s markets are anticipating further increases in the money supply from the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Treasury Department, and other central banks. According to the expert, these factors could support significant growth in Bitcoin’s price by the end of this decade – potentially reaching levels of $150,000 to $200,000.
“In this context, cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, are showing better dynamics than the S&P 500 and other traditional assets.”
Hayes highlights that investors often underestimate the potential not only of stocks but also of digital currencies. He points out that governments around the world have a pressing need to issue new money, and while risks may emerge at the end of this cycle, the market has not yet reached that phase.
Previously Made Predictions and Assessments
Over the past year, Arthur Hayes has repeatedly made bold statements regarding the prospects of Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market as a whole. In April, he predicted the possibility of Bitcoin’s price soaring to $1 million by 2028, citing the policies of U.S. President Donald Trump, trade tariffs, and active dollar issuance. In May, he forecasted an increase in Bitcoin’s value to $250,000 by 2025 and anticipated the start of a “real altseason” upon reaching the $200,000 mark, highlighting Ethereum as the main asset among altcoins. At that time, he invested 20% of his portfolio in gold, hoping for its rise to $10,000 to $20,000 per ounce. In August, Hayes warned of a potential drop in Bitcoin’s price to $100,000 due to macroeconomic risks, selling cryptocurrencies worth over $13 million in the process.
Despite the changing assessments, Arthur Hayes remains one of the most authoritative experts in the cryptocurrency space, influencing market sentiment and discussions surrounding the future of Bitcoin and digital assets.