The baseline scenario for the development of the situation in the Ukrainian energy sector for summer 2025 does not foresee mass power outages. This is the opinion of most leading analysts, who emphasize that the system currently remains stable, although there are certain risks associated with the ongoing war and potential attacks from Russia.
This is reported by Finway
Current State and Influencing Factors
The energy system of Ukraine is holding up thanks to moderate weather and improved protection of energy facilities. Despite some nuclear power units being under scheduled maintenance, there is currently no observed capacity deficit. As experts note, the key role in ensuring stability has been played by lessons learned from last year’s experience, when massive missile strikes coincided with maintenance work at nuclear power plants, leading to significant problems with access to electricity. This summer, thanks to better organization of maintenance schedules and enhanced infrastructure protection, the energy system is operating more efficiently.
“Last year’s experience was taken into account, when the consequences of massive attacks coincided with the maintenance of nuclear power units, leading to physical access issues to electricity. This year, the protection of energy facilities is working significantly better. At the same time, the schedule was arranged in such a way as to minimize the impact on the energy system,” said Alexander Kharchenko, Director of the Energy Research Center, during a press conference at the Ukrainian Crisis Media Center.
Forecasts and Potential Risks
Despite the current stability, experts emphasize that the energy system remains vulnerable. According to an optimistic forecast, if there is no significant escalation of hostilities or mass attacks on energy infrastructure, mass outages are not expected by the end of summer. The peak consumption is projected to be around 16 GW, and the available capacities of nuclear, thermal, hydro, and renewable energy sources should be sufficient to meet the demand.
However, in the event of a resurgence of intense attacks from Russia on generation, the situation could deteriorate sharply, and the country could again face the risk of a significant electricity deficit. In a pessimistic scenario, during peak load hours, the deficit could reach 2.2 GW due to the loss of part of the thermal generation. Even after the war ends, the consequences of the destruction of energy infrastructure will be felt for another 5-7 years, and interruptions in electricity supply will remain likely due to the wear and tear of networks and equipment.
An important factor remains the unpredictability of the situation at the front, as well as weather conditions. If the weather remains favorable and attacks on infrastructure do not intensify, Ukrainians can expect stable electricity supply until the end of summer 2025.