SpaceX could become one of the world’s most valuable companies if its valuation reaches $1.7 trillion during the upcoming IPO. This forecast was made by senior PitchBook analyst Franco Granda, emphasizing that for this to materialize, investors must be prepared for long-term investments and consider Elon Musk’s unique influence.
This is reported by Finway
“A $1.7 trillion valuation for SpaceX during the initial public offering (IPO) could be justified if investors are willing to focus on the long-term perspective and accept the ‘Musk factor’.”
Revenue Growth Potential and Multipliers
According to the expert, such a capitalization implies that investors would accept a price/sales multiplier of over x100 — for comparison, Palantir’s multiplier is around x77, one of the highest in the S&P 500. Granda notes that SpaceX could attract about $50 billion in investments, allowing it to scale the Starship rocket, expand the Starlink satellite network, and implement direct communication technologies with smartphones.
According to PitchBook’s estimates, by 2040, SpaceX’s revenue could grow from nearly $16 billion in 2025 to $150 billion. In such a scenario, the revenue multiplier would decrease to x12, making the valuation more acceptable to the market.
Betting on Starlink and the ‘Platform Premium’
SpaceX’s valuation model is based on the sum of its business parts, taking into account the rapid development of Starlink and the company’s leadership in space launches. Orbital data centers and a lunar base are currently considered optional long-term projects and are not included in the revenue forecast.
A key factor remains investors’ willingness to provide SpaceX with a so-called ‘platform premium’ — a unique combination of satellite internet, artificial intelligence, rocket launches, and new telecommunications services. If the $1.7 trillion valuation is achieved, SpaceX could surpass companies like Meta in market capitalization, trailing only a few of the largest tech giants in the world.
At the same time, among the main risks are high stock volatility, potential delays in Starship testing, and regulatory restrictions from the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration. These regulatory procedures could significantly impact the company’s launch dynamics in 2026.
Also noted is the so-called ‘Musk factor’ — Elon Musk’s unpredictable behavior on social media and in public, which has repeatedly led to scandals and declines in his companies’ stock prices.
It is worth mentioning that xAI companies plan to pay off a $17.5 billion debt against the backdrop of SpaceX’s upcoming IPO.