Cryptocurrency analyst PlanB suggests that the maximum price of Bitcoin may not be reached in 2025, as some market participants believe, but much later — between 2026 and 2028.
This is reported by Finway
Why Relying Solely on the Four-Year Cycle is Unwise
PlanB emphasizes that the traditional four-year halving cycle does not guarantee a peak will occur in October 2025. In his opinion, relying exclusively on this pattern is too simplistic. The Stock-to-Flow model, often used for analysis, reflects only the average price of the asset within the cycle and does not allow for precise identification of peak values or local minima.
“In the previous three cycles, the six months leading up to the halving and the 18 months following it were indeed profitable, but that is not enough for reliable forecasting,” the expert noted.
Some traders believe that the local maximum for Bitcoin has already occurred at $126,000 and predict a decline below $100,000 in 2026. However, the analyst does not share this view.
Key Signals for Bitcoin Market Development
According to PlanB, a fundamental transformation of the market plays a crucial role, which has not yet occurred in the current cycle. He believes that it is only after this phase that a “big leap” for Bitcoin may begin, and this could happen at any moment between 2026 and 2028.
Among the technical signals that may indicate the approach of a Bitcoin price peak, the analyst highlights:
- The relative strength index (RSI) has not yet reached the mark of 80 or higher;
- The realized price has not deviated from the 200-week moving average.
PlanB emphasizes that either the “big leap” is still ahead, or the market has entered a stable phase under the control of institutional players and funds. In any case, this positively impacts Bitcoin’s prospects, and, as the expert claims, a serious bear market without significant growth is unlikely.
Earlier, representatives from Citigroup stated that Bitcoin remains dependent on fluctuations in the stock market.