On-chain market analyst Willy Woo has suggested that the current Bitcoin correction may continue, with the price of the leading cryptocurrency potentially dropping to the range of $46,000–$54,000. According to the expert, this range is determined based on historical models that also allow for an assessment of the duration of the market’s downward phase.
This is reported by Finway
Key Models for Identifying Bitcoin’s Bottom
Woo emphasized the importance of the so-called “orange line” on the chart, which reflects the correlation with the volume of capital invested in Bitcoin. According to his calculations, the indicator has been declining since November and currently estimates the fair price of the asset at approximately $54,200.
The expert also addressed the CVDD Floor model, which, at the time of assessment, signals a potential bottom for Bitcoin around $45,500. However, Woo stressed that all on-chain models are based on data from only a few bear markets, so the sample for analysis remains limited.
Impact of Macrorisks on the Cryptocurrency Market
Willy Woo highlighted that historical models only account for periods of rising risk assets and therefore do not consider the potential impact of global macroeconomic changes. He stated that if the bullish trend on global markets were to break, the likelihood of a deeper bear market for Bitcoin significantly increases.
Woo’s opinion was criticized by a user on the social network X, who noted that analyzing only the BTC/USD chart does not provide a complete picture of market movements.
“It only shows part of the picture. The real alpha lies in understanding capital rotation and macro structure,” he stated.
In his view, classical price charts do not allow for an assessment of all key market processes and the dynamics of capital changes.
Previously, Willy Woo had warned about a potential “bull trap” during Bitcoin’s rise to $80,000 and had a negative outlook on the cryptocurrency market in 2026.
