Ukrainian exports are gradually recovering after a series of massive attacks on port and railway infrastructure, which particularly impacted the economy at the end of 2025. At that time, exporters of iron ore and grain suffered the most, losing approximately $150 million and $700 million respectively.
This is reported by Finway
Logistics Quickly Recovers Despite Shelling
The National Bank of Ukraine assesses these losses as temporary and predicts that by 2026, export volumes could return to previous levels if the security situation does not worsen. According to the director of the monetary policy and economic analysis department of the NBU, Volodymyr Lepushynskyi, at the beginning of the year, losses were significantly lower due to the rapid restoration of logistics routes.
“In the first quarter of 2026, there were losses, but they were an order of magnitude smaller thanks to the fairly quick recovery of logistics,” he noted.
He also highlighted a change in the enemy’s tactics: instead of massive strikes on energy infrastructure, Russia has begun to carry out more targeted attacks specifically on logistics facilities, including ports. In the first quarter of 2026, there were 11 attacks on ports — just two fewer than in the entire previous year. The number of attacks on railways has also increased: in March, there were 21, compared to 13 in January and 18 in February.
Export Volumes and Risks for the Ukrainian Economy
According to the regulator, despite these challenges, in 2025, the export of goods from Ukraine decreased by 2.7% or $1 billion, reaching $38.3 billion. This occurred after a 12.3% increase in export volumes in 2024.
Lepushynskyi separately commented on the risks associated with the blockade of energy imports from Hungary, as well as potential difficulties with the export and transit of Ukrainian goods through this country. He stated that these risks remain manageable and are unlikely to significantly impact the macroeconomic situation.
“Hungary’s share in our total export and import of goods is relatively low. Our dependence on energy supply is mostly offset by the high adaptability of Ukrainian logistics,” he said.
If these risks do materialize, the main issue could be the increase in import costs due to a longer logistics chain. However, according to the representative of the National Bank, the impact on inflation and currency demand will be limited and will not lead to serious macroeconomic consequences.