According to the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), in March 2025, businesses provided positive assessments of their economic activity for the first time in 11 months. The Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI) exceeded the neutral level, reaching 51.8, while in February this figure was 46.9 (52 in March 2024).
This is reported by Finway
Factors Contributing to Positive Changes
Among the main drivers that influenced the improvement in business expectations are: stable consumer demand, increased production, inflow of international financial assistance, stabilization of energy supply, and seasonal factors. In particular, trade emerged as the most optimistic sector with an index of 54, industry showed an index of 53.1, construction was at 52.9, while the services sector remained the most cautious with an index of 48.8.
“Surveyed enterprises in the industrial and services sectors have moderated their expectations regarding the rise in purchase prices, as well as prices/tariffs for their own products/services, while construction and trade companies have maintained high expectations for price increases,” noted the NBU.
Employment Expectations
Expectations regarding employment have also improved: construction is increasing its workforce, industry is approaching a neutral level, while a slight reduction in staff is forecasted in trade and the services sector.