Ukraine has ramped up strikes against Russia’s “shadow fleet,” aiming to cut off the main sources of oil revenue for Russia that continue to finance the war against Ukraine. In particular, Ukrainian forces recently targeted a Russian oil tanker in the Mediterranean Sea. This indicates an expansion of Kyiv’s long-term maritime campaign aimed at the infrastructure that allows Moscow to circumvent international sanctions.
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Impact of Attacks on Russian Oil Exports
According to Janis Kluge, an expert from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, regular attacks on the “shadow fleet” tankers could disrupt key routes for Russian oil exports. This, in turn, would lead to a reduction in export volumes and a significant decrease in revenue for the Russian state.
Estimates from the Center for Strategic and International Studies suggest that Russia’s “shadow fleet” transports about 3.7 million barrels of oil daily, accounting for approximately 65% of Russia’s maritime oil exports. This generates between $87 billion and $100 billion annually for the Kremlin.
The material emphasizes that Ukraine is systematically increasing pressure on Russia’s military and economic targets, aimed at reducing funding for the war.
“This strategy required time for implementation, as Ukraine had to demonstrate that its response to Russia’s escalation would not provoke Western reprisals, effectively exposing Moscow’s bluff. Throughout 2025, Kyiv focused on strikes against Russian oil refineries and then shifted its attention to export infrastructure, particularly oil terminals in ports such as Novorossiysk,” the material recalled.
Maritime Blockade and Technological Confrontation
Ukraine’s recent actions indicate a shift from symbolic attacks to systematic pressure on Russia’s ability to process and transport energy resources. The use of Ukrainian maritime drones has led to a partial blockade of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Moscow’s main countermeasure has been to escort the “shadow fleet” with military ships; however, this creates additional threats and burdens for Russia itself, as these ships also become targets for Ukrainian drones.
Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security Samuel Bendett noted that Russia is trying to keep Ukrainian unmanned surface vessels as far away from its coastline as possible and is using longer-range drones to target them. At the same time, the expert points out that Ukraine is also enhancing its countermeasures—unmanned vessels are now being equipped with first-person view drones, allowing them to intercept Russian drones.
According to experts, Ukraine is not only fighting for control over the Black Sea but is also expanding the battlefield by combining surface, underwater, and long-range drone operations. This creates additional threats for Russian military and commercial vessels, forcing the Kremlin to redeploy forces to protect maritime trade far beyond traditional maritime routes.
Russian military analysts acknowledge that Russia has failed to adequately respond to the increasing Ukrainian naval activity, facing difficulties in protecting commercial shipping outside the Black Sea.
William Spaniel, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Pittsburgh, notes that in the future, Ukraine may adopt the approaches of the Houthis in the Red Sea, using maritime drones like Sea Baby to impact maritime trade associated with Russia. With fewer geographical constraints, a similar strategy could also be applied in the Baltic and Arctic regions, forcing Moscow to protect its maritime trade across an increasing number of routes.