In July 2025, Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased by 1%, indicating a certain slowdown in economic activity. However, for the second quarter of this year, the real GDP growth was 1.7% year-on-year.
This is reported by Finway
Impact of the Agricultural and Industrial Sectors on GDP
The main factor behind the GDP decline in July was a significant reduction in real gross added value (GAV) in agriculture—down 26% compared to the same period last year. This was due to a decrease in harvest yields and overall crop collection. In addition to agriculture, the mining industry also showed negative dynamics, with GAV decreasing by 10%, primarily due to losses in the coal sector. At the same time, gas extraction improved thanks to active measures to restore the industry.
Positive Changes and Updated Macroeconomic Forecast
Among the positive trends is the growth of real GAV in the manufacturing sector, which occurred due to increased demand and a rise in defense orders. In July, this indicator rose to 1.4% compared to 1% in June. The growth rate in the trade sector remained almost at the previous month’s level—2.6%.
At the same time, the transport sector experienced a decline: real GAV in this area decreased by nearly 9%. The reasons included a reduction in the volume of railway transport and the cessation of gas transit from Russia to the European Union. In particular, “Ukrzaliznytsia” transported fewer grain crops due to the depletion of their stocks. However, there was a revival in the extraction of construction materials in the mining sector.
Analysts have downgraded their GDP forecast for 2025 to a growth of 2%, while for 2026, they expect a growth of 2.8%.