Ukraine can avoid an electricity shortage in the summer of 2025 if two main conditions are met — no attacks from the Russian Federation on the energy infrastructure and moderate summer temperatures. However, even in the absence of shelling, extreme heat could still lead to restrictions in electricity supply.
This is reported by Finway
Impact of Weather Conditions and Energy System Potential
Elena Lapenko, General Manager for Security and Resilience at DiXi Group, notes that under moderate temperatures, when extreme heat is not observed, peak electricity consumption in the summer will reach around 15.2 GW. At the same time, she emphasized that even in the presence of shelling, the air defense system and physical protection of energy facilities play a crucial role in ensuring the stability of the energy system.
“Even if there are shellings, the air defense and physical protection of facilities must play their role in protecting the energy system,” says Lapenko.
Risks for Industry and the Role of Electricity Imports
Yuriy Boyko, advisor to the Prime Minister and member of the supervisory board of Ukrenergo, also believes that there are risks to the stability of the energy system, especially in the case of prolonged periods of hot weather with temperatures above 35°C. He does not rule out that temporary restrictions may be imposed on industrial consumers, even if the Russian Federation does not carry out new attacks on energy infrastructure.
According to him, the main difficulties for the energy system may arise on hot days when demand rises sharply. In such a situation, electricity imports from Europe could play an important role: in winter, the import volume reached 2.1 GW, but it is currently limited to 1.7 GW. Boyko is confident that this volume should be sufficient, as the projected deficit is less than the import capacity, although exact figures remain confidential.
However, in the event of prolonged temperatures above 35°C, the energy system may not withstand the load. In the worst-case scenario, the electricity deficit in Ukraine could reach 2.8 GW with a maximum demand of 18 GW. In this case, even imported supplies may not be enough, increasing the risk of emergency power outages for consumers.