The National Bank of Ukraine has decided to keep the discount rate unchanged at 15%. This decision was made by the NBU’s board to maintain the attractiveness of hryvnia assets, stabilize the currency market, and control inflation expectations amid rising price pressures.
This is reported by Finway
Reasons for Inflation Acceleration and Current Dynamics
According to the regulator, after a period of slowing inflation from June 2025 to January 2026, an acceleration was observed in February-March 2026. The main factors contributing to this increase were the rising costs of energy resources, the challenging situation in the energy sector due to Russian attacks on infrastructure, a significant increase in fuel prices due to the war in the Middle East, as well as the depreciation of the hryvnia in previous months and a faster-than-expected rise in wages.
“Price pressures intensified due to the difficult situation in the energy sector following Russian shelling, the sharp rise in fuel prices amid the war in the Middle East, the effects of the hryvnia’s depreciation in previous periods, and a faster-than-expected increase in salaries,” explains the NBU.
In March 2026, inflation accelerated to 7.9% year-on-year, while core inflation reached 7.1%. Both indicators exceeded the forecasts laid out in the NBU’s January inflation report. According to preliminary data, the upward trend in inflation continued in April. As a result of the previous month, inflation reached 13.4% year-on-year, and prices increased by 0.8% over the month.
NBU’s Inflation Forecasts for 2026–2028
The National Bank forecasts that inflation will remain close to the current level in the coming months, and in the second half of 2026, it may accelerate to 9.4% by the end of the year. The main factor for this increase will be the rising costs of energy resources, which will affect the production costs of enterprises.
At the same time, the NBU expects that by 2027, inflation will begin to decrease due to the waning impact of high fuel prices, reduced external price pressures, gradual increases in harvests, and improvements in the energy sector. According to the regulator’s estimates, by the end of 2027, inflation will slow down to 6.5%, and in 2028, it will reach the target level of 5%.