In Ukraine, consumer inflation in November 2025 dropped to 9.3% year-on-year. This is stated in the December report of the National Bank on financial stability.
This is reported by Finway
Expectations Regarding Inflation and Key Factors
The National Bank notes that further reduction in inflation will be possible due to higher yields of grains and vegetables, as well as due to the “relative rigidity” of monetary policy. However, the regulator emphasizes that fundamental price pressure remains significant due to the tense situation in the labor market and rising wages, which increase production costs and lead to higher service prices.
“Additional pressure on prices may arise from energy shortages. Inflation expectations among the population and businesses remain quite high. The need to mitigate wartime risks and bring inflation down to target levels will require the NBU to maintain a relatively high real rate,” the report states.
Prospects for the Key Rate and the Attractiveness of Hryvnia Assets
According to the National Bank, maintaining the key rate will help support the attractiveness of hryvnia assets, particularly through the increase in real rates on hryvnia deposits and domestic government bonds. The regulator forecasts that by the end of 2025, inflation will slow down to 9.2%, and by the end of 2026, it may decrease to 6.6%. A reduction in the key rate may begin as early as the first quarter of 2026, if the economic situation allows for it without risks to macro-financial stability.
As of December 2025, the National Bank has kept the key rate at 15.5% per annum. At the same time, the institution continues to monitor the main factors influencing inflation and maintains strategic flexibility in its policy.