The rapid increase in the migration of Ukrainian citizens after the end of hostilities could become an important factor for the economic development of Central and Eastern European countries. According to analysts at S&P Global, nearly half of Ukrainian refugees in the European Union currently reside in 11 Central and Eastern European countries (CEE-11), significantly strengthening local labor markets.
This is reported by Finway
The Impact of Refugees on the Economies of the Region
Experts estimate that the presence of Ukrainian displaced persons in these countries could have both negative and positive effects on GDP – ranging from a decrease of 6% to an increase of 3%. The further course of events depends on the duration of the war: the longer the conflict lasts, the greater the likelihood that the positive migration balance will be maintained, and Ukrainians will remain integrated into the societies of the host countries.
The Future of Migration and Integration
A characteristic feature of the current migration flows is that the majority of displaced persons are women and children. The further dynamics after the war will depend on their level of integration in EU countries and the possibility of family reunification.
“In the event of a ceasefire, we expect families to reunite either in Ukraine or in the host country,” the report emphasizes.
The group of CEE-11 countries that host the largest number of Ukrainian refugees includes Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia. These countries could receive a significant economic boost if Ukrainian migrants are effectively integrated into their labor markets.