In the 2025/2026 marketing year, sunflower oil production in Ukraine is expected to be around 4.6 million tons. This figure is 10% lower compared to last year, when 5.1 million tons were produced.
This is reported by Finway
Reasons for the Decrease in Production and Yield
The main factor for the reduction is a decrease in the yield of oilseed crops overall by 11.7%, which is related to a 7.8% reduction in harvested area. The yield of sunflower has particularly fallen significantly — by 16.8%, marking the worst performance in the last decade.
“In the 2025/26 marketing year, a 10% decrease in sunflower oil production is expected compared to the 2024/25 marketing year (4.6 million tons versus 5.1 million tons), and a 6.4% decrease in exports (4.4 million tons versus 4.7 million tons). A decrease in foreign exchange earnings is not anticipated.”
It is also noted that sunflower oil exports will decrease by 6.4% — to 4.4 million tons. At the same time, according to estimates from the National Scientific Center “Institute of Agrarian Economics”, the profitability of sunflower cultivation in 2025 remains one of the highest among agricultural crops at 54.7%.
Industry Transformation and Export Trends
Despite the reduction in the production and export of oil and meal, foreign exchange earnings from sunflower oil sales are not decreasing. On the contrary, there is an increase due to rising global prices for Ukrainian products. Analysts indicate that this helps to partially offset losses from the decline in export volumes.
This marketing year also sees a transformation in the industry: domestic processing of rapeseed and soybeans is increasing, while exports of these raw materials are decreasing. This approach ensures stable utilization of production capacities and indicates a gradual shift from raw material exports to the sale of products with higher added value.
Furthermore, in the 2025/2026 marketing year, an export of 576 thousand tons of rapeseed oil is forecasted, which is 2.7 times more than last year. At the same time, soybean oil exports are expected to decrease by 3.7% — to 501 thousand tons.
